Interesting and new academic works by researchers at the Centre are presented here and up-dated on a regular basis.
Importance of the Geocoding Level for Historical Demographic Analyses: A Case Study of Rural Parishes in Sweden, 1850–1914
Geocoding longitudinal and individual-level historical demographic databases enables novel analyses of how micro-level geographic factors affected demographic outcomes over long periods. However, such detailed geocoding involves high costs. Additionally, the high spatial resolution cannot be properly utilized if inappropriate methods are used to quantify the geographic factors. We assess how different geocoding levels and methods used to define geographic variables affects the outcome of detailed spatial and historical demographic analyses. Using a longitudinal and individual-level demographic database geocoded at the property unit level, we analyse the effects of population density and proximity to wetlands on all-cause mortality for individuals who lived in five Swedish parishes, 1850–1914. We compare the results from analyses on three detailed geocoding levels using two common quantification methods for each geographic variable. Together with the method selected for quantifying the geographic factors, even small differences in positional accuracy (20–50 m) between the property units and slightly coarser geographic levels heavily affected the results of the demographic analyses. The results also show the importance of accounting for geographic changes over time. Finally, proximity to wetlands and population density affected the mortality of women and children, respectively. However, all possible determinants of mortality were not evaluated in the analyses. In conclusion, for rural historical areas, geocoding to property units is likely necessary for fine-scale analyses at distances within a few hundred metres. We must also carefully consider the quantification methods that are the most logical for the geographic context and the type of analyses.
Hedefalk, F, Pantazatou, K, Quaranta, L, & Harrie, L (2017) Importance of the geocoding level for historical demographic analyses: A case study of rural parishes in Sweden, 1850–1914. Spatial Demography, 1-35, published online 22 Oct 2017
Inequality and demographic response to short-term economic stress in North Orkney, Scotland, 1855–1910: Sector differences
We examine economic inequality and social differences in infant and child mortality, and fertility responses to food price changes in North Orkney, 1855–1910, using linked vital records. This small population featured a diverse occupational structure, limited land resources, and geographic isolation from mainland Scotland. Segments of Orkney’s non-agricultural working population were living so close to the margin of subsistence in normal years that an increase in food prices in bad years cost the lives of their children. Thus delayed childbearing, in addition to increased labour intensity, occupational diversification, and poor relief, failed to mitigate the negative effects of unfavourable prices in this group. While previous studies for Western Europe show a strong social gradient in mortality responses to food prices, and for Eastern Asia a strong household gradient, this study shows a strong sectoral gradient, indicating low standards of living for the non-agricultural working population well into the twentieth century.
Jennings, J A, Quaranta, L, Bengtsson T (2017) Inequality and demographic response to short-term economic stress in North Orkney, Scotland, 1855–1910: Sector differences. Population Studies, published online 31 Aug 2017
Age Homogamy, Gender, and Earnings: Sweden 1990–2009. Social Forces
Previous research has shown considerable marriage premiums in earnings for men, but often penalties for women of being in a union. In this study we extend this research by analyzing how the age difference between spouses affects the earnings profiles by gender. As we follow people over time in advance as well as within their marriage, we can separate premarital from postmarital earnings movements. The data consist of information on annual earnings 1990–2009 for all Swedes born 1960–1974 (N = 926,219). The results indicate that age homogamy is related to higher earnings for both men and women, and that larger age differences are generally associated with lower union premiums, quite independently of which spouse is older. However, most of these results are explained by assortative mating, in which men and women with greater earnings potentials find partners of a similar age. Overall, the age difference between spouses seems to have a limited causal effect, if any, on individual earnings.
Dribe, M, Nystedt, P (2017). Age Homogamy, Gender, and Earnings: Sweden 1990–2009. Social Forces.
Spatiotemporal historical datasets at micro-level for geocoded individuals in five Swedish parishes, 1813–1914
This paper presents datasets that enable historical longitudinal studies of micro-level geographic factors in a rural setting. These types of datasets are new, as historical demography studies have generally failed to properly include the micro-level geographic factors. Our datasets describe the geography over five Swedish rural parishes, and by linking them to a longitudinal demographic database, we obtain a geocoded population (at the property unit level) for this area for the period 1813–1914. The population is a subset of the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD). The geographic information includes the following feature types: property units, wetlands, buildings, roads and railroads. The property units and wetlands are stored in object-lifeline time representations (information about creation, changes and ends of objects are recorded in time), whereas the other feature types are stored as snapshots in time. Thus, the datasets present one of the first opportunities to study historical spatio-temporal patterns at the micro-level.
Hedefalk, F, Svensson, P, Harrie L (2017) Spatiotemporal historical datasets at micro-level for geocoded individuals in five Swedish parishes, 1813–1914. Nature Research Journal, Scientific Data 4, Article 170046
Unequal lands: Soil type, nutrition, and child mortality in southern Sweden, 1850-1914
Child mortality differed greatly within rural regions in Europe before and during the mortality transition. Little is known about the role of nutrition in such geographic differences, and about the factors affecting the nutritional status and hence the disease outcomes. Focusing on nutrition, we analyse the effects of soil type, used as an indicator of the farm-level agricultural productivity and hence of nutritional status, on mortality of children aged 1–15 living in five rural parishes in southern Sweden, 1850–1914. Using longitudinal demographic data combined with unique geographic microdata on residential histories, the effect of soil type on mortality risks are analysed considering as outcome all-cause mortality and mortality from nonairborne and airborne infectious diseases. Soil type primarily affected the mortality of farmers’ children, but not labourers’ children. Particularly, farmers’ children residing in areas with very high proportions of clayey till (75–100% coverage) experienced lower risks of dying compared to children residing in areas with other soil types such as clay and sandy soils. Certain soil types seem to have influenced agricultural productivity, which in turn affected the nutrition of farmers’ children and thus their likelihood of dying. The results indicate the relatively important role of nutrition as a mortality predictor for these children. As, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal study at the microlevel that analyses the effects of soil type on mortality in a historical rural society, we contribute to the literature on the role of nutrition on the risk of dying in a preindustrial society.
Hedefalk F, Quaranta L, Bengtsson T (2017). Unequal lands: Soil type, nutrition and child mortality in southern Sweden, 1850-1914. Demographic Research 36(36): 1039–1080.
The Effect of Schooling on Mortality: New Evidence From 50,000 Swedish Twins.
Lundborg P, Lyttkens C H, Nystedt P (2016). The Effect of Schooling on Mortality: New Evidence From 50,000 Swedish Twins. Demography 53:1135-1168
Exploring the role of communication in shaping fertility transition patterns in space and time
Klüsener S, Scalone F, Dribe M (2016). Exploring the role of communication in shaping fertility transition patterns in space and time, in A. Grow and J. Van Bavel (eds.) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies. Concepts, Methods, and Applications. Dordrecht: Springer.
Fighting Infections Disease: Evidence from Sweden 1870-1940
Even more than in developing countries today, public health strategies to fight infectious disease in the past focused on the prevention of new infections by stopping their spread. These strategies were motivated by new insights into the causes of disease and the modes of transmission in the mid-nineteenth century. By combining longitudinal individual-level data on 17,000 children in a rural/semi-urban region in southern Sweden with local community data on public health investments, we explore the effects of the establishment of isolation hospitals and improved midwifery on mortality before age 15. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the establishment of isolation hospitals in the mid-1890s was successful in reducing child mortality, while increases in the number of qualified midwives after the 1900s led to a decrease in infant mortality. In both cases, rates fell by more than 50 percent.
Lazuka, V, Quaranta, L, Bengtsson, T. (2016). Fighting Infections Disease: Evidence from Sweden 1870-1940. Population and Development Review, Vol. 42, no. 1.
Women living in states with restrictive abortion policies are more likely than others to use highly effective contraceptives
In the past decade in particular, there have been substantial increases in the proportion of women of reproductive age living in states with highly restrictive abortion policies. Against that backdrop, there is a need to understand how women’s contraceptive behavior is related to restrictions on abortion access in the state where they live. In this study, data from the 1995 and 2010 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) in conjunction with information on state-level abortion context were analyzed. The analysis suggests that women living in states with more restrictive abortion contexts tend to use highly effective contraceptives. However, increases in states’ restrictiveness during the study period did not appear to be associated with increased use of highly effective methods. It is likely that states introducing restrictive legislation already had significant restrictions in place, and women living in these states had previously adjusted their behaviors. Contraceptive choice seems to be most strongly influenced by individual characteristics, irrespective of the larger abortion context. The best way to prevent unintended pregnancies is to ensure access to highly effective contraceptive methods for all women, particularly in contexts where access to abortion is limited.
Jacobs J, Stanfors M. (2015). State Abortion Context and U.S. Women’s Contraceptive Choices, 1995–2010. Perspectives of Sexual and Reproductive Health, Vol. 47, no. 2.
Did social mobility increase during the industrialization process? A micro-level study of a trasnforming community in southern Sweden 1828-1968
This article studies class attainment and mobility in a long-term perspective, covering the entire transition from a preindustrial to a mature industrial society. The results show that both absolute and relative mobility increased, mainly because upward mobility become more prevalent. By looking at status attainment into different segments of the middle class and elite, the study also show an increasing role played by formal education and meritocracy for the opportunities of people from low-class origin to advance socially. However, this development is more connected with the maturing of industrial society than with industrialization as such.
Dribe M, Helgertz J, van de Putte B (2015). Did social mobility increase during the industrialization process? A micro-level study of a transforming community in southern Sweden 1828–1968. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 41: 25–39.
Functional form matters if you want to get your Mincer earnings equations right
In this study, we evaluate the empirical performance of the standard Mincer earnings equation, which has been the benchmark model for assessment of wage profiles since 1974. Our analysis concerns workers in the manufacturing industry in Britain, Sweden, and the United States circa 1900. We add a gender perspective to the existing historical wage growth literature where previous studies have mostly had a male focus and missed the gender dimension. We find that the Mincer equation needs to be adjusted with respect to functional form in order to capture the wage profiles of industrial workers in the past. The quadratic spline consistently provides the best fit while the standard quadratic produces misleading estimates of wage changes and gender wage gaps. These conclusions hold across contexts, for men and women, and for both age and experience profiles. Our results have methodological relevance for estimating historical wage profiles but also have implications for the assessment of gender wage gaps in the past.
Burnette J, Stanfors, M. (2015). Estimating historical wage profiles. Historical Methods, 48(2): 35-51.
The role of social class in fertility transition in Southern Sweden
The dominating focus on the macro level in previous research on the fertility transition means that to a large extent we lack knowledge about details of the decline and empirical tests of the leading explanatory frameworks. Our aim in this study is to explore socioeconomic fertility differentials in an industrializing community, to gain insight about the details and discuss possible mechanisms. The study starts well before industrialization and finishes at the end of the transition. We use longitudinal individual-level data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database (SEDD), which contains demographic as well as socioeconomic information, including occupation, landholding, and income. In the analysis we use hazard regressions with shared frailty at the family level. The transition involved not only parity-specific stopping but also spacing. While the upper social strata had higher fertility prior to the transition, they started to control their fertility earlier, by the 1880s, and also more consistently. Farmers, the middle class, and skilled workers followed in the decades after, and unskilled workers with some additional delay.
Bengtsson T, Dribe M (2014) “The historical fertility transition at the micro level: Southern Sweden 1815-1939”, Demographic Research, Vol. 30, No. 17, pp. 493-533.
Height and Earnings. The Role of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills
Register data on 450,000 Swedish males who underwent mandatory military enlistment at age 18, and a subsample of 150,000 siblings, are used to examine why tall people earn more. The results show the importance of both cognitive and noncognitive skills, as well as family background and muscular strength for the height-earnings relationship. In addition, it is shown that a substantial height premium remains after these factors have been accounted for, which originates from very short people having low earnings. This is mostly explained by the sorting of short people into low-paid occupations, which may indicate discrimination by stature.
Lundborg P, Nystedt P, Rooth DO. (2014). Height and Earnings. The Role of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills. Journal of Human Resources, vol 49(1), pp 141-166.
Social class and fertility in the fertility transition: a comparative study
Micro-level data from the censuses of 1900 are used to investigate the impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the fertility transition in five Northern American and European countries (Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the USA). The results show highly similar patterns across countries, with the elite and upper middle classes having considerably lower net fertility early in the transition. These patterns remain after controlling for a range of individual and community-level fertility determinants and geographical unobserved heterogeneity.
Dribe M, Hacker D H, Scalone F (2014). The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: A comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA. Population Studies.
Is intermarriage good for earnings?
In this article we look at the impact of intermarriage on the economic integration of immigrants in Sweden, measured by annual earnings. We use longitudinal register data for the period 1990–2009 for the total population of immigrant men born 1960–1974. The results reveal large intermarriage premiums, but overall this seems to be a result of selection effects as most of the premium is visible already at the time of marriage. For the most economically marginalized immigrants, however, an intermarriage premium arises within marriage implying that forming a union with a native triggers a more rapid earnings growth among them.
Dribe M, Nystedt P (2014). Is there an Intermarriage Premium for Male Immigrants? Exogamy and Earnings in Sweden 1990–2009, International Migration Review.
Short- and medium term economic consequences of the Spanish Flu
We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature – despite representing an unparalleled labour supply shock. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic led to a significant increase in poverty rates. There is also evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. However, we find no discernible effect on earnings.
Karlsson M, Nilson T, Pichler S (2014). The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden - An Investigation into the Consequences of an Extraordinary Mortality Shock. Journal of Health Economics
Certain welfare state regimes preserve gendered time use patterns more than others
Having young children generally intensifies gendered patterns of time use. During the 1990s this pattern changed in several Nordic countries, where welfare state arrangements support gender equality and work-family balance more comprehensively than elsewhere. By using data from the Multinational Time Use Surveys (MTUS) for Germany, Italy and Canada, we find convergence of men’s and women’s time use over the 1990s, but uncover no strong evidence of the Nordic pattern emerging elsewhere. In countries with less comprehensive family policies and less support for gender equality, parenthood continued to reinforce traditional patterns of behavior on weekdays.
Neilson J, Stanfors M (2014). It’s about time! Gender, parenthood and household divisions of labor under different welfare regimes. Journal of Family Issues.
Educational heterogamy and the division of paid labour
This study builds on the long-standing theoretical interest in the importance of comparative advantages between partners for the division of paid labour in the family, using pooled cross-sectional data of EU-SILC 2004–2008. Contrary to expectations, we find that comparative advantages between partners, as measured by educational heterogamy, are of only minor importance for determining the couple’s division of paid labour in such diverse countries as Belgium and Sweden. Our results show that women’s relative labour market participation is less education-driven in Sweden than in Belgium, and is more related to the life cycle effect of the presence of (young) children, confirming more egalitarianism and family friendliness in Scandinavia than in continental Europe.
Eeckhaut M C W, Stanfors M, Van de Putte B (2014). Educational heterogamy and the division of paid labour in the family: A comparison of present-day Belgium and Sweden. European Sociological Review 30: 64–75.
Small babies run higher risks of bad health in later life
Early exiting from the labor force and into disability pension (DP) represents a major social problem in Sweden and elsewhere. This paper examines how being asymmetric (A-SGA) or symmetric (S-SGA) small for gestational age predicts transitioning into DP. The evidence presented suggests that being A-SGA influences the risk of DP, independent of childhood and adulthood conditions, and similarly for men and women.
Helgertz J, Vågerö D (2014). Small for gestational age and adulthood risk of disability pension: The contribution of childhood and adulthood conditions. Social Science and Medicine.
Educational homogamy and earnings in Sweden 1990-2009
This article studies the connection between educational assortative mating and gender-specific earnings in a sample containing the entire Swedish population born 1960–1974. We find that being partnered with someone with more education (hypergamy) is associated with higher earnings, while partnering someone with less education (hypogamy) is associated with lower earnings. However, most of the differences are explained by selection processes, rather than being causal effects
Dribe M, Nystedt P (2013). Educational Homogamy and Gender-Specific Earnings: Sweden 1990-2009.” Demography 50:1197–1216.